Sunday, March 17, 2019

2019 Final Bracket Prediction 

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1: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan State, Michigan
3: Houston, LSU, Texas Tech, Florida State
4: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas State
5: Villanova, Virginia Tech, Auburn, Marquette
6: Iowa State, Miss St., Maryland, Cincinnati
7: Wofford, Buffalo, Nevada, Louisville
8: Seton Hall, Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF
9: Minnesota, Baylor, Oklahoma, Washington
10: Utah State, TCU, Ohio State, Syracuse
11: St. John's, VCU, Florida, Temple, Arizona State, Oregon
12: St. Mary's, Murray State, New Mexico State, Liberty
13: St. Louis, UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern
14: Old Dominion, Yale, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky
15: Montana, Colgate, Bradley, Gardner-Webb
16: Abilene Christian, Iona, Prairie View, Fairleigh Dickinson, North Dakota St, NC Central

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Bracket Prediction: 3/16/2019

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Predicted auto qualifiers in bold:

1: Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga
2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Mich St, Michigan
3: Houston, LSU, Texas Tech, Kansas
4: Fla St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
5: Va Tech, Marquette, Miss St, Villanova
6: Auburn, Iowa St, Maryland, Cincinnati
7: Buffalo, Nevada, Wofford, Seton Hall
8: Louisville, Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF
9: Minnesota, Baylor, Washington, Oklahoma
10: Syracuse, TCU, Utah St, Florida
11: Ohio St, VCU, Temple, St John's, Arizona St, UNC Greensboro
12: St. Mary's, Davidson, Murray St, Liberty

Next 6: Creighton, Alabama, Indiana, Belmont, NC State, Clemson 

Friday, March 15, 2019

Bracket Prediction: 3/15/2019

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Predicted auto qualifiers in bold:

1: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Duke, Mich St, Tennessee, LSU
3: Michigan, Houston, Purdue, Texas Tech
4: Kansas, Florida St, Wisconsin, Kansas St
5: Marquette, Va Tech, Mississippi St, Maryland
6: Villanova, Auburn, Cincinnati, Nevada
7: Iowa St, Wofford, Buffalo, Iowa
8: Louisville, Ole Miss, UCF, VCU
9: Washington, Seton Hall, Baylor, Syracuse
10:Oklahoma, Utah St, Temple, Minnesota
11: TCU, Arizona St, Ohio St, St John's, Indiana
12: Creighton, UNCG, St Mary's, Murray St, Liberty

My best guess at this rate is the 8 seeds and above are for sure safe, and the 9 seeds are probably safe as well. 

Teams that I'm not considering bullet proof, but that should be in: 

Oklahoma, Utah St, Temple, Minnesota. All these teams *should be in.* They have acceptable records compared to the others, no Q4 losses in the group, and all but Minnesota only have 1 Q3 loss. Temple and Utah St could do themselves favors and win 1 more, but should be OK regardless. 

The bubble (19 teams for 7 spots. Italics means they're eliminated from conference tournament)

Last 7 in: TCU, Arizona St, Ohio St, St John's, Indiana, Creighton, UNCG

The others being considered: Belmont, NC State, Clemson, Florida, Alabama, Xavier, Georgetown, Texas, Providence, Nebraska, Furman, Lipscomb

Long shots/Teams I'm watching in conference tournaments (I am hoping at least 1 or 2 of these teams can steal a bid, because frankly I think it makes the tournament more competitive than adding another 14 or 15 loss team):

AAC: Memphis and Wichita St
A10: Dayton and Davidson
Pac 12: Oregon, Colorado
MWC: Fresno St

Monday, March 11, 2019

Bracket Prediction: 3/11/2019

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Predicted auto qualifiers in bold:

1: Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina 
2: Duke, Mich St, Tennessee, LSU
3: Michigan, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue
4: Kansas, Wisconsin, Florida State, Kansas State
5: Marquette, Va Tech, Maryland, Miss St
6: Villanova, Auburn, Cincinnati, Nevada
7: Iowa State, Wofford, Buffalo, Iowa
8: Louisvile, Ole Miss, Baylor, UCF
9: Washington, Oklahoma, VCU, Syracuse
10: Minnesota, Seton Hall, Saint John's, Utah State
11: TCU, Temple, Ohio State, Arizona State, 
12: Creighton, Clemson, Indiana, Texas, Murray State, Liberty

Next 7 Out: NC State, Georgetown, UNCG, Alabama, Providence, Xavier, Florida

Would be next 3 out, that are probably eliminated: Belmont, Furman, Lipscomb. 

Long shots, but probably need to win their conference tournament (in no particular order):

Nebraska, Butler, South Carolina, Oregon, Arizona, St. Mary's, Memphis, Arkansas, Dayton, Wichita State. 

Friday, March 8, 2019

Bracket Prediction: 3/8/19

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Predicted auto qualifiers in all caps:

1: VIRGINIA, Duke, GONZAGA, Kentucky
2: North Carolina, Mich St, MICHIGAN, TENNESSEE
4: Kansas, Wisconsin, MARQUETTE, Florida St
5: Kansas St, Miss St, Maryland, Villanova
6: Va Tech, Cincinnati, Iowa St, NEVADA
7: WOFFORD, Louisville, Auburn, BUFFALO
8: Oklahoma, Syracuse, WASHINGTON, VCU
9: Ucf, Texas, Baylor, Iowa
10: Ole Miss, Utah St, Ohio St, Minnesota
11: Seton Hall, Tcu, St John's, Clemson, Temple, Florida
12: Alabama, Creighton, LIPSCOMB, BELMONT

Next 7: NC State, Arizona St, Indiana, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, Furman

Friday, March 1, 2019

Bracket Prediction: 3/1/19

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I played around with some data this week which moved some teams around. The data isn't perfect, so I'll keep playing with it. Here is a small idea of what I'm doing to come up with a composite score:

Assigning value for all wins and losses based on the group it came in, with essentially an inverse being that a group 1 win is the inverse of a group 4 loss causing it to wash out both games hypothetically.

I'm also ranking teams on the board in groups of 10 based on their NET rank, SOS, and an average of their predictive metrics like BPI, Kenpom, etc. Each group of ten is assigned so many points each based on what group they fall in. For example, group 1 got 7 points, while everyone in group 7 only got 1 point.

As you can imagine, this isn't perfect and there are certainly outliers. The big one for me is Gonzaga. Even with their big record, their points sum had them as the 12 best team. Part of creating a bracket is a human element, and we all know Gonzaga isn't getting a 3 seed, so my predictions below are a combination of data along with the human adjustment element.

Predicted auto qualifiers in all caps:

2: MICHIGAN ST, North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan
4: Purdue, TEXAS TECH, Wisconsin, Va Tech
5: Kansas St, Florida St, Maryland, Miss St
6: Iowa St, NEVADA, Cincinnati, Villanova
7: BUFFALO, Iowa, Louisville, WOFFORD
8: Baylor, Auburn, Ole Miss, St. John's
9: WASHINGTON, Oklahoma, Ohio St, Syracuse
10: VCU, Tcu, Florida, NC State
11: Alabama, Ucf, Texas, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Temple
12: Arizona St, Utah St, BELMONT, NM STATE

Play-in games: Seton Hall vs Temple, Arizona St vs Utah St

Next 8 out: Clemson, Butler, Georgetown, UNCG, Furman, Nebraska, Providence, St Mary's

Here is what the data looked like without the human element (I think I need to find a way to assign a slightly higher point value to group 3 and 4 wins to prop up big record teams like Gonzaga and Houston who by the data have fallen back because of a lack of group 1 and 2 wins):

Mich St
Texas Tech
Miss St
Kansas St
Florida St
Va Tech
Iowa St
Ole Miss
St. John's
Ohio St
NC State
Seton Hall
Utah St
NM State
Arizona St
St Mary's

Friday, February 22, 2019

Bracket Prediction: 2/22/19

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Predicted auto qualifiers in all caps:

1: VIRGINIA, Duke, GONZAGA, Kentucky
2: TENNESSEE, North Carolina, MICHIGAN, Mich St
4: Lsu, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Florida State
5: Iowa State, NEVADA, Maryland, Kansas St
6: Villanova, Iowa, Va Tech, Louisville
7: Miss St, Cincinnati, BUFFALO, WASHINGTON
8: Baylor, Auburn, Ole Miss, Syracuse
9: St. John's, Ohio State, WOFFORD, Texas
10: NC State, Minnesota, Tcu, Oklahoma
11: VCU, Seton Hall, Arizona St, Florida
12: Ucf, Clemson, Alabama, Temple, LIPSCOMB, BELMONT

Last 4 in: UCF vs Clemson, Alabama vs Temple
First 6 out: Nebraska, Butler, Georgetown, Utah State, Furman, Providence

2019 Final Bracket Prediction  Follow on Twitter at @sluderbrackets Check out 1: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, North ...