Bracket Prediction: 3/1/19

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I played around with some data this week which moved some teams around. The data isn't perfect, so I'll keep playing with it. Here is a small idea of what I'm doing to come up with a composite score:

Assigning value for all wins and losses based on the group it came in, with essentially an inverse being that a group 1 win is the inverse of a group 4 loss causing it to wash out both games hypothetically.

I'm also ranking teams on the board in groups of 10 based on their NET rank, SOS, and an average of their predictive metrics like BPI, Kenpom, etc. Each group of ten is assigned so many points each based on what group they fall in. For example, group 1 got 7 points, while everyone in group 7 only got 1 point.

As you can imagine, this isn't perfect and there are certainly outliers. The big one for me is Gonzaga. Even with their big record, their points sum had them as the 12 best team. Part of creating a bracket is a human element, and we all know Gonzaga isn't getting a 3 seed, so my predictions below are a combination of data along with the human adjustment element.

Predicted auto qualifiers in all caps:

1: VIRGINIA, Duke, KENTUCKY, GONZAGA
2: MICHIGAN ST, North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan
3: HOUSTON, Lsu, MARQUETTE, Kansas
4: Purdue, TEXAS TECH, Wisconsin, Va Tech
5: Kansas St, Florida St, Maryland, Miss St
6: Iowa St, NEVADA, Cincinnati, Villanova
7: BUFFALO, Iowa, Louisville, WOFFORD
8: Baylor, Auburn, Ole Miss, St. John's
9: WASHINGTON, Oklahoma, Ohio St, Syracuse
10: VCU, Tcu, Florida, NC State
11: Alabama, Ucf, Texas, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Temple
12: Arizona St, Utah St, BELMONT, NM STATE

Play-in games: Seton Hall vs Temple, Arizona St vs Utah St

Next 8 out: Clemson, Butler, Georgetown, UNCG, Furman, Nebraska, Providence, St Mary's

Here is what the data looked like without the human element (I think I need to find a way to assign a slightly higher point value to group 3 and 4 wins to prop up big record teams like Gonzaga and Houston who by the data have fallen back because of a lack of group 1 and 2 wins):

Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Mich St
Michigan
LSU
Kansas
UNC
Marquette
Tennesse
Houston
Gonzaga
Purdue
Texas Tech
Miss St
Wisconsin
Villanova
Maryland
Kansas St
Florida St
Va Tech
Cincinnati
Iowa
Iowa St
Nevada
Buffalo
Auburn
Louisville
Wofford
Baylor
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
St. John's
Ohio St
Washington
VCU
Syracuse
Florida
UCF
TCU
Alabama
Minnesota
NC State
Texas
Seton Hall
Temple
Belmont
Clemson
Utah St
UNCG
Butler
Nebraska
NM State
Georgetown
Furman
Arizona St
St Mary's