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Predicted auto qualifiers in bold:
1: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Duke, Mich St, Tennessee, LSU
3: Michigan, Houston, Purdue, Texas Tech
4: Kansas, Florida St, Wisconsin, Kansas St
5: Marquette, Va Tech, Mississippi St, Maryland
6: Villanova, Auburn, Cincinnati, Nevada
7: Iowa St, Wofford, Buffalo, Iowa
8: Louisville, Ole Miss, UCF, VCU
9: Washington, Seton Hall, Baylor, Syracuse
10:Oklahoma, Utah St, Temple, Minnesota
11: TCU, Arizona St, Ohio St, St John's, Indiana
12: Creighton, UNCG, St Mary's, Murray St, Liberty
My best guess at this rate is the 8 seeds and above are for sure safe, and the 9 seeds are probably safe as well.
Teams that I'm not considering bullet proof, but that should be in:
Oklahoma, Utah St, Temple, Minnesota. All these teams *should be in.* They have acceptable records compared to the others, no Q4 losses in the group, and all but Minnesota only have 1 Q3 loss. Temple and Utah St could do themselves favors and win 1 more, but should be OK regardless.
The bubble (19 teams for 7 spots. Italics means they're eliminated from conference tournament)
Last 7 in: TCU, Arizona St, Ohio St, St John's, Indiana, Creighton, UNCG
The others being considered: Belmont, NC State, Clemson, Florida, Alabama, Xavier, Georgetown, Texas, Providence, Nebraska, Furman, Lipscomb.
Long shots/Teams I'm watching in conference tournaments (I am hoping at least 1 or 2 of these teams can steal a bid, because frankly I think it makes the tournament more competitive than adding another 14 or 15 loss team):
AAC: Memphis and Wichita St
A10: Dayton and Davidson
Pac 12: Oregon, Colorado
MWC: Fresno St
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