2019 Final Bracket Prediction 

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1: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan State, Michigan

3: Houston, LSU, Texas Tech, Florida State

4: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas State

5: Villanova, Virginia Tech, Auburn, Marquette

6: Iowa State, Miss St., Maryland, Cincinnati

7: Wofford, Buffalo, Nevada, Louisville

8: Seton Hall, Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF

9: Minnesota, Baylor, Oklahoma, Washington

10: Utah State, TCU, Ohio State, Syracuse

11: St. John's, VCU, Florida, Temple, Arizona State, Oregon

12: St. Mary's, Murray State, New Mexico State, Liberty

13: St. Louis, UC Irvine, Vermont, Northeastern

14: Old Dominion, Yale, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky

15: Montana, Colgate, Bradley, Gardner-Webb

16: Abilene Christian, Iona, Prairie View, Fairleigh Dickinson, North Dakota St, NC Central

Bracket Prediction: 3/16/2019

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Predicted auto qualifiers in bold:

1: Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga

2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Mich St, Michigan

3: Houston, LSU, Texas Tech, Kansas

4: Fla St, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St

5: Va Tech, Marquette, Miss St, Villanova

6: Auburn, Iowa St, Maryland, Cincinnati

7: Buffalo, Nevada, Wofford, Seton Hall

8: Louisville, Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF

9: Minnesota, Baylor, Washington, Oklahoma

10: Syracuse, TCU, Utah St, Florida

11: Ohio St, VCU, Temple, St John's, Arizona St, UNC Greensboro

12: St. Mary's, Davidson, Murray St, Liberty

Next 6: Creighton, Alabama, Indiana, Belmont, NC State, Clemson 

Bracket Prediction: 3/15/2019

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Predicted auto qualifiers in bold:

1: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga

2: Duke, Mich St, Tennessee, LSU

3: Michigan, Houston, Purdue, Texas Tech

4: Kansas, Florida St, Wisconsin, Kansas St

5: Marquette, Va Tech, Mississippi St, Maryland

6: Villanova, Auburn, Cincinnati, Nevada

7: Iowa St, Wofford, Buffalo, Iowa

8: Louisville, Ole Miss, UCF, VCU

9: Washington, Seton Hall, Baylor, Syracuse

10:Oklahoma, Utah St, Temple, Minnesota

11: TCU, Arizona St, Ohio St, St John's, Indiana

12: Creighton, UNCG, St Mary's, Murray St, Liberty

My best guess at this rate is the 8 seeds and above are for sure safe, and the 9 seeds are probably safe as well. 

Teams that I'm not considering bullet proof, but that should be in: 

Oklahoma, Utah St, Temple, Minnesota. All these teams *should be in.* They have acceptable records compared to the others, no Q4 losses in the group, and all but Minnesota only have 1 Q3 loss. Temple and Utah St could do themselves favors and win 1 more, but should be OK regardless. 

The bubble (19 teams for 7 spots. Italics means they're eliminated from conference tournament)

Last 7 in: TCU, Arizona St, Ohio St, St John's, Indiana, Creighton, UNCG

The others being considered: Belmont, NC State, Clemson, Florida, Alabama, Xavier, Georgetown, Texas, Providence, Nebraska, Furman, Lipscomb. 

Long shots/Teams I'm watching in conference tournaments (I am hoping at least 1 or 2 of these teams can steal a bid, because frankly I think it makes the tournament more competitive than adding another 14 or 15 loss team):

AAC: Memphis and Wichita St

A10: Dayton and Davidson

Pac 12: Oregon, Colorado

MWC: Fresno St

Bracket Prediction: 3/11/2019

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Predicted auto qualifiers in bold:

1: Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina 

2: Duke, Mich St, Tennessee, LSU

3: Michigan, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue

4: Kansas, Wisconsin, Florida State, Kansas State

5: Marquette, Va Tech, Maryland, Miss St

6: Villanova, Auburn, Cincinnati, Nevada

7: Iowa State, Wofford, Buffalo, Iowa

8: Louisvile, Ole Miss, Baylor, UCF

9: Washington, Oklahoma, VCU, Syracuse

10: Minnesota, Seton Hall, Saint John's, Utah State

11: TCU, Temple, Ohio State, Arizona State, 

12: Creighton, Clemson, Indiana, Texas, Murray State, Liberty

Next 7 Out: NC State, Georgetown, UNCG, Alabama, Providence, Xavier, Florida

Would be next 3 out, that are probably eliminated: Belmont, Furman, Lipscomb. 

Long shots, but probably need to win their conference tournament (in no particular order):

Nebraska, Butler, South Carolina, Oregon, Arizona, St. Mary's, Memphis, Arkansas, Dayton, Wichita State. 

Bracket Prediction: 3/8/19

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Predicted auto qualifiers in all caps:

1: VIRGINIA, Duke, GONZAGA, Kentucky

2: North Carolina, Mich St, MICHIGAN, TENNESSEE

3: Lsu, TEXAS TECH, HOUSTON, Purdue

4: Kansas, Wisconsin, MARQUETTE, Florida St

5: Kansas St, Miss St, Maryland, Villanova

6: Va Tech, Cincinnati, Iowa St, NEVADA

7: WOFFORD, Louisville, Auburn, BUFFALO

8: Oklahoma, Syracuse, WASHINGTON, VCU

9: Ucf, Texas, Baylor, Iowa

10: Ole Miss, Utah St, Ohio St, Minnesota

11: Seton Hall, Tcu, St John's, Clemson, Temple, Florida

12: Alabama, Creighton, LIPSCOMB, BELMONT

Next 7: NC State, Arizona St, Indiana, Georgetown, Butler, Providence, Furman

Bracket Prediction: 3/1/19

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I played around with some data this week which moved some teams around. The data isn't perfect, so I'll keep playing with it. Here is a small idea of what I'm doing to come up with a composite score:

Assigning value for all wins and losses based on the group it came in, with essentially an inverse being that a group 1 win is the inverse of a group 4 loss causing it to wash out both games hypothetically.

I'm also ranking teams on the board in groups of 10 based on their NET rank, SOS, and an average of their predictive metrics like BPI, Kenpom, etc. Each group of ten is assigned so many points each based on what group they fall in. For example, group 1 got 7 points, while everyone in group 7 only got 1 point.

As you can imagine, this isn't perfect and there are certainly outliers. The big one for me is Gonzaga. Even with their big record, their points sum had them as the 12 best team. Part of creating a bracket is a human element, and we all know Gonzaga isn't getting a 3 seed, so my predictions below are a combination of data along with the human adjustment element.

Predicted auto qualifiers in all caps:

1: VIRGINIA, Duke, KENTUCKY, GONZAGA
2: MICHIGAN ST, North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan
3: HOUSTON, Lsu, MARQUETTE, Kansas
4: Purdue, TEXAS TECH, Wisconsin, Va Tech
5: Kansas St, Florida St, Maryland, Miss St
6: Iowa St, NEVADA, Cincinnati, Villanova
7: BUFFALO, Iowa, Louisville, WOFFORD
8: Baylor, Auburn, Ole Miss, St. John's
9: WASHINGTON, Oklahoma, Ohio St, Syracuse
10: VCU, Tcu, Florida, NC State
11: Alabama, Ucf, Texas, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Temple
12: Arizona St, Utah St, BELMONT, NM STATE

Play-in games: Seton Hall vs Temple, Arizona St vs Utah St

Next 8 out: Clemson, Butler, Georgetown, UNCG, Furman, Nebraska, Providence, St Mary's

Here is what the data looked like without the human element (I think I need to find a way to assign a slightly higher point value to group 3 and 4 wins to prop up big record teams like Gonzaga and Houston who by the data have fallen back because of a lack of group 1 and 2 wins):

Kentucky
Virginia
Duke
Mich St
Michigan
LSU
Kansas
UNC
Marquette
Tennesse
Houston
Gonzaga
Purdue
Texas Tech
Miss St
Wisconsin
Villanova
Maryland
Kansas St
Florida St
Va Tech
Cincinnati
Iowa
Iowa St
Nevada
Buffalo
Auburn
Louisville
Wofford
Baylor
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
St. John's
Ohio St
Washington
VCU
Syracuse
Florida
UCF
TCU
Alabama
Minnesota
NC State
Texas
Seton Hall
Temple
Belmont
Clemson
Utah St
UNCG
Butler
Nebraska
NM State
Georgetown
Furman
Arizona St
St Mary's